Economic pressure moves former Lula supporters toward Bolsonaro in Brazil election, reshaping changing working class and presidential race

Osasco’s changing workforce

In Osasco, a former industrial city near São Paulo now associated with technology and shopping malls, union leader Gilberto Almazan says the workforce has changed. He says deindustrialisation has reduced the share of industrial workers, while service jobs have become more common.

Some residents who once backed Lula now say they will vote for Bolsonaro. Lawyer Gisele Bonfim says Bolsonaro represents hope for a different Brazil, after she supported Lula in 2022. Hot-dog seller Tairine says taxes and inflation make life difficult for poor people, and argues little has changed since Lula returned to office.

Richard Lapper, a biographer of Lula and Jair Bolsonaro, links the shift to the decline of manufacturing and the rise of individualised work. He says those changes have been particularly sharp in Brazil, which industrialised late and deindustrialised early.

Workers weigh daily costs

Lula is admired by supporters for organising strikes, advancing workers’ rights and using social welfare programmes to lift millions from poverty. But some workers say they want greater flexibility in their schedules and more freedom in how they work.

Robson, a 53-year-old municipal civil servant from Pernambuco, grew up supporting Lula but has since switched to Bolsonaro. He says families must choose between paying a car instalment and buying food.

The account reports that Lula lost votes in some areas compared with 2022, while Bolsonaro did not exceed his father’s vote total from that election. In the first round, 33 million people abstained, the highest figure since 1998.

Abstention and political doubt

In Maré, a large Rio de Janeiro favela controlled by rival gangs, abstention was higher than average. Resident Andreza Dionísio cites both late changes to polling places and a sense of hopelessness about the future.

Some residents fear security forces could enter the favela if Bolsonaro wins. Another resident is sceptical of his plan to designate Comando Vermelho, the gang controlling that area, as a terrorist organisation.

One supporter, Leila, says many people stayed home because they believed voting would not change anything. She says supporters are trying to persuade them that their votes matter.

Churches fill a social gap

About a quarter of Brazilians are now evangelical, and churches increasingly provide community support alongside religious services. Their assistance can include childcare, employment advice and food. Silas Malafaia leads Assembleia de Deus Vitória em Cristo, based in Rio’s lower-middle-class Penha neighbourhood. He has millions of social media followers and is being investigated over alleged obstruction of Jair Bolsonaro’s coup trial, which he denies and describes as politically motivated.