Democrats' advantage is clear with less than a month to go in the midterm elections

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The U.S. Capitol stands on Sept. 23 in Washington, D.C. Finn Gomez/Getty Images hide caption

President Trump was elected in 2024, in large measure, with a mandate to bring down prices. But that hasn't happened. Instead, Trump is facing record-low approval ratings, and voters are blaming him for costs that have continued to rise since he took office this second time around.

As a result, Republicans are likely to pay the price at the ballot box next month. One month out from Election Day, the electoral landscape has shifted even more so in Democrats' direction.

They are favored to win the House, albeit with a fairly narrow majority. The Cook Political Report forecasts a five-to-15-seat net gain for Democrats at this point. That would give them in the range of 220 to 230 seats come January. (218 is needed for a majority.)

The Senate has shifted more dramatically over the last several months. Six seats have moved more in Democrats' direction since June in comparing Cook's ratings from then to now. When the cycle first started, the Senate was a long shot for Democrats. Now, it's within reach.

And that's largely because of the national mood, which is usually the case in midterms. Trump has just a 37% approval rating, according to an average of the polls. That's tied for the lowest pre-midterm approval in the last half century.

The only other president to be that low in that time was George W. Bush in 2006. Back then, Iraq was spiraling into civil war, and Republicans lost both the House and Senate.

Trump is also facing a historic intensity of opposition; 53% in the latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll said they strongly disapprove of the job the president is doing, the highest ever recorded in the survey. That's not a great sign for Republicans with Trump insisting that the midterm elections be about him.

As it is, history is unkind to the president's party in midterm elections. They usually lose about two dozen seats in the House and four in the Senate. It's even worse for the party in power when the president's approval rating is below 50%, as Trump's is now.

There are multiple reasons Democratic gains might be limited, including mid-decade redistricting helping to insulate Republicans, fewer competitive-to-potentially competitive House seats, with most in districts Trump won in 2024, Republicans' campaign spending edge and the unpopularity of the Democratic Party.

Economic issues continue to rate as the top problem and most important issue facing the country.