No clear election winner: Israel’s opposition may not be able to form a government, but still could control Parliament’s agenda
No bloc has a clear majority
With about 80 percent of ballots counted by Wednesday evening, results and exit polls suggested that neither main bloc had enough seats for a straightforward majority in the 120-member Knesset. One estimate put Netanyahu’s coalition at about 54 seats, Eisenkot’s bloc at roughly 49 and the Arab parties at 17; those figures could change as counting continues.
The account gives different figures for the share counted: one passage says about 80 percent, while another refers to 70 percent. It says the remaining ballots include votes from special polling stations at military bases, hospitals, prisons and embassies.
Opposition weighs parliamentary route
Both main blocs of Jewish parties were described as reluctant to rely on a coalition with the two predominantly Arab parties. Eisenkot has rejected partnering with them, even as their projected seats could offer his bloc a path to unseating Netanyahu.
After lawmakers are sworn in, the Knesset must choose a speaker. Experts say an opposition-backed speaker could help the opposition direct the parliamentary agenda, influence key committees and begin advancing legislation.
Shared goals, legal questions
Eisenkot’s bloc and the Arab parties agree on seeking an independent state inquiry into the government’s failure to prevent the Hamas-led attack on Oct. 7, 2023. They also share a desire to reverse laws connected to a sweeping judicial overhaul.
Opposition members have discussed barring candidates charged with crimes from forming governments or limiting prime ministers to two terms. Experts cautioned that such measures could be viewed as targeting Netanyahu and face challenges in Israel’s Supreme Court. Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute, said, “Damaging legislation and damaging practices were introduced, but they can still be reversed.”
Negotiations could take weeks
Most ballots were expected to be counted by Wednesday, although the final tally could take days. Parties may then spend weeks trying to assemble a governing majority; if negotiations fail, Israel could hold another election.
Netanyahu could seek to use the time in hopes of improving his position in a new vote. Eisenkot, a former Israeli military chief of staff, said, “Tonight we got the answer: The public opted for change.” President Isaac Herzog has a largely ceremonial role but selects a potential prime minister after elections.
Key points
- Neither Netanyahu’s coalition nor Eisenkot’s bloc was projected to reach the 61-seat majority threshold.
- The Arab parties were projected to win as many as 17 seats, though vote totals could shift.
- The opposition could seek influence over the Knesset agenda by choosing its speaker.
- Failed coalition talks could lead to another election.