How Israel’s Election Works and What Happens Next

How does Israel’s election work?

Israelis vote for parties in a national election. The country uses proportional representation: broadly, each party’s share of the vote determines its share of seats in the Knesset, Israel’s parliament. The Knesset has 120 seats. ⁴ This means voters are choosing among party lists rather than selecting a single local representative to fill a seat.

A party must receive at least 3.25% of the vote to qualify for seats, according to the election-system overview provided here. ⁴ Votes for parties that do not meet that threshold do not translate into Knesset seats. The threshold and the nationwide system shape which parties can participate in parliament, but they do not by themselves decide who becomes prime minister.

A party needs 61 seats to hold a majority in the 120-seat Knesset. ¹ Since no single party has won a majority in a national election in Israel, governments are typically formed by coalitions: agreements among multiple parties to govern together. ⁴ As a result, a party can win more seats than its rivals without having enough support to govern on its own.

What do the exit polls say about the result?

Exit polls reported on October 27 show a close contest, not a clear winner. Updated projections from Israel’s three major television networks put Eisenkot’s bloc at 52 seats and Netanyahu’s Likud-led camp at 50. The remaining 18 seats were assigned to Arab parties described as unaligned in those projections. ³

Those figures do not give either main bloc the 61 seats needed for a majority. ¹³ PBS also reported that opposition parties appeared to have more seats than Netanyahu’s coalition, while still falling short of a majority. ² The difference between leading the seat count and having enough partners to govern is central to understanding the result.

These are exit-poll projections, which may change when the votes are counted and official results are established. The sources available for this article do not provide final certified results. So it is more accurate to describe the election as deadlocked in the projections than to say that either side has won the ability to form a government. ²³

What happens if no bloc has 61 seats?

Parties may need to negotiate with one another to assemble a coalition that can command a majority. The numbers suggest that the talks could be difficult: the exit polls show both main blocs below 61 seats, while the 18 seats assigned to unaligned Arab parties are not automatically part of either camp. ³ France 24 reported that Eisenkot had largely ruled out forming a government with those parties, which could further complicate coalition-building. ³

A larger bloc may have an advantage in trying to form a government, but the exit-poll lead is not the same as a confirmed governing majority. The available sources say Eisenkot’s bloc could have the first chance to form a government, while also warning that neither side has a clear path to power. ³ They do not explain every formal step in the government-formation process, so the precise timetable and procedure should not be assumed from these reports.

If negotiations take time, Netanyahu may remain in office in a caretaker capacity while parties try to reach an agreement, according to France 24. ³ That would not, by itself, prove that his coalition had won the election or secured a new term. It would mean that the political situation remained unresolved while talks continued.

Why is this election important?

This is the first Israeli election since the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023, and the subsequent war in Gaza, according to the election coverage. ¹² The Guardian describes the vote as a referendum on Netanyahu’s leadership after those attacks. ¹ That is a description of the election’s political stakes, not a formal question on the ballot.

The contest could determine whether Netanyahu remains in power or whether his opponents can build a coalition. But the exit polls leave that outcome uncertain. ²³ The Guardian also reports that Netanyahu faces ongoing corruption trials in three cases; those cases are separate from the question of which parties can form a government. ¹

Turnout was reported at 77.7%, which France 24 said was Israel’s highest in more than two decades. ³ High participation indicates that many people voted, but it does not settle who will govern. For readers, the practical point is that the seat count and the subsequent party negotiations both matter—and the available figures are still projections rather than a final account of the result.

What should readers watch for next?

The first thing to watch is whether official counting confirms the exit-poll seat estimates. The second is whether any parties are willing to negotiate across the lines described in the projections. The reports available here do not establish which parties will join a coalition or whether either main bloc can reach 61 seats.

Until those questions are answered, headlines about a narrow lead should not be read as proof that a new government is settled. The election determines the composition of the Knesset; negotiations determine whether parties can agree on a governing majority. If no majority emerges quickly, the sources indicate that a caretaker government may continue while talks proceed. ³