After Israel exit polls show no clear winner in 2026 elections, what happens next?
Exit polls show divided blocs
Exit polls from major Israeli TV stations put Netanyahu’s bloc at 50 seats. The opposition was projected to win 52 or 53, while Arab parties were estimated at 17 or 18.
The contest features 38 parties, though most are not expected to win enough votes to enter the Knesset. The article describes the two main camps as nearly equal in weight: Netanyahu’s alliance of far-right parties and an opposition led by Yashar’s Gadi Eisenkot, a former head of the Israel Defence Forces.
How Israel forms governments
Israel uses nationwide proportional representation. Voters choose a party, and its share of the national vote determines how many Knesset seats it receives. A party must win at least 3.25 per cent of the vote, equivalent to four seats, to enter the Knesset. Because no single party has historically secured a majority, governments are formed through coalitions.
If no one can assemble a coalition with 61 seats, voters return to the ballot box. The article does not give a date for any possible new election.
Negotiations may take months
The exit polls followed voting that opened at 7am local time and closed at 10pm, or 8pm GMT. The official full results were expected to be confirmed on Tuesday 4 November.
Forming a government takes longer than counting votes: the process can range from 20 to 100 days, and no government has been sworn in within 50 days over the past two decades. Once a coalition agreement is signed, the Knesset holds a special session. The designated prime minister presents the government and its policy agenda, followed by a formal vote; if the government wins, it begins its tenure.
Issues shaping the contest
Key debates include exemptions from military service for ultra-Orthodox Jews and how the state should investigate its failure to prevent the October 7 2023 Hamas attacks. Future concessions in Gaza, the occupied West Bank and Lebanon are also at issue.
The article characterizes the election as one of the most consequential in Israel’s history. One speaker described the vote as the opening round of a longer political contest, rather than a single event.
Key points
- Exit polls project 50 seats for Netanyahu’s bloc, 52-53 for the opposition and 17-18 for Arab parties.
- A governing coalition needs 61 of the Knesset’s 120 seats.
- Coalition talks could take weeks or months, with government formation taking 20 to 100 days.
- Debates include military-service exemptions, the October 7 attacks and future concessions in Gaza, the occupied West Bank and Lebanon.