UK autumn forecast: El Niño to cause wetter and warmer-than-normal season

Flooding from Storm Chandra in the hamlet of Weycroft on January 27, 2026 in Axminster, England. A wetter-than-normal season is forecast for the upcoming autumn increasing the risk of flooding.

The UK is set for wetter and warmer-than-normal weather this autumn, driven by a strengthening El Niño, according to the latest forecasts from the Met Office.

Potential wetter weather will put areas of the UK gripped by drought on the road to recovery, but it could also bring an increased chance of flooding as a result.

A stormy season is forecast for the UK with the chances of wet and windy weather higher than normal, particularly from November.

El Niño - or the warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean - is continuing to strengthen and is expected peak in November or December as a historic event.

"While this event may become one of the strongest El Niño events on record, that does not automatically mean more severe impacts for the UK," he added.

Storm Amy, the first named storm of the 2025-26 season, brought flooding to parts of the UK last October

A wetter outlook for late autumn and into winter will bring some relief to parched regions for the UK.

Helen Wakeham, Director of Water at the EA said "drought recovery is a very long process" and only over once reservoirs, rivers and groundwater supplies are back to normal.

A similar scenario played out in 2025 when the UK experienced a summer of record-breaking heat followed by storms and floods in the autumn.

Autumn is also likely to be warmer than normal, according to the Met Office.

While a warmer-than-normal autumn is is consistent with global warming trends, the higher-than-normal sea surface temperatures around the UK will also have an influence.