Zealand Election Too Close to Call as Voters Turn to Minor Parties

Main parties remain nearly tied

With 95% of votes counted, the ruling National Party and opposition Labour Party each had just under 30% of the vote. National held a lead of about 3,500 votes late Saturday.

Prime Minister Cristopher Luxon said National was the largest party and had a route to forming the next government. Labour leader Chris Hipkins said the results meant politicians would need to seek common ground. The election unfolded amid high prices for basic goods and the country’s highest unemployment in more than a decade.

Special votes could shift balance

Official results are expected later this month, after special votes are counted over the next three weeks. These include ballots cast by people overseas and have typically favored left-leaning parties.

Special votes have changed preliminary outcomes in each of the last three elections. Their effect could determine whether National and its current partners retain a parliamentary majority.

Coalition options take shape

National currently governs with the pro-business ACT party and right-wing populist New Zealand First. Preliminary figures project the three parties will win 67 seats, a narrow majority. If the right-wing bloc falls short, the centrist Opportunity Party could hold a decisive role. It is projected to win seven seats, clearing the 5% threshold and returning to Parliament for the first time since its 2017 founding. Luxon has previously ruled out working with Opportunity.

Parliament set to expand

New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional system. Voters choose both a party and a local electorate candidate; electorate winners and party-list members make up Parliament. Parliament usually has 120 seats, but preliminary results indicate an overhang will increase it to 130. That would make it the largest Parliament in the country’s history.