NZ election 2026 live results: count on as National and Labour battle it out in knife-edge New Zealand poll
Early vote points to close contest
With 17% of ballots counted, National had 30.5% of the vote and Labour 29%. The Greens were on 13%, Act on 11.1%, NZ First on 9.8%, Opportunity on 5.4% and Te Pāti Māori on 0.5%.
At 20% counted, seat projections put National, Act and NZ First on 67 seats combined. Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori were projected to hold 56; the House was then forecast to have 130 seats.
Opportunity may hold balance
Pre-election polling had suggested the Opportunity Party could pass the 5% threshold. Led by businesswoman Qiulae Wong, 38, the centrist party says it will negotiate first with whichever party wins the most votes.
Its policies include a land tax and a universal basic income of $370 a week. The party also backs market-driven solutions, a low-emission future and evidence-based policy. Stuff’s panel of pundits said current trends suggested Opportunity might hold the balance of power.
Luxon rejects proposed tax
National leader Christopher Luxon has repeatedly ruled out working with Opportunity, saying its land tax conflicts with his party’s pledge of no new taxes. Luxon, 56, has led National and served as prime minister since 2023. A former chief executive of Air New Zealand, he entered parliament in 2020 after winning the Auckland electorate of Botany. His party won the 2023 election on economic pledges.
Key points
- National and Labour were separated by 1.5 percentage points with 17% counted.
- At 20% counted, projections gave National, Act and NZ First 67 seats combined.
- Opportunity was polling above the 5% threshold and could become a kingmaker.
- Luxon has ruled out working with Opportunity over its proposed land tax.