Which MLB Free Agents Face Qualifying Offer Decisions Ahead of Tuesday’s Deadline?

How the offer works

Introduced in 2012, the qualifying offer is intended to compensate teams that lose key free agents. Its salary matches the average of baseball’s top 125 salaries; this year it is $23.15 million, compared with $22.025 million in 2025.

Teams may offer it to eligible free agents who have not received one before and were not acquired midseason. Accepting means a one-year return, with a restriction on trades without the player’s consent until June of next season. Declining allows the player to enter free agency, and the former club can receive draft compensation if the player signs elsewhere.

Tarik Skubal and Freddy Peralta are ineligible, as is Luis Arraez, who joined the Philadelphia Phillies in a midseason trade. The deadline is Tuesday.

Arozarena and Lowe standouts

Randy Arozarena is portrayed as a sure recipient. With Seattle, he posted a .281/.381/.484 line, an .865 OPS, 26 home runs and 79 RBI in 2026, which the article identifies as his best season.

The article expects Arozarena to decline and pursue a multiyear deal in free agency. It cites his agent, Scott Boras, in explaining that prediction. Brandon Lowe is also considered a lock for an offer after his strong performance with Pittsburgh. The article predicts he will turn it down, with a free-agent contract potentially approaching $100 million, and says the Pirates should try to retain him.

Bednar’s market and Chisholm’s outlook

David Bednar is described as the top reliever available after recording a 2.47 ERA at age 32. The article says a contract longer than three years is possible and does not rule out a return to the Yankees.

Pirates owner Bob Nutting is said to favor Bednar, but Pittsburgh’s need for a closer is presented as less pressing after the club acquired Luke Weaver at the deadline. Jazz Chisholm has made two All-Star teams and recorded an .800 OPS in two of the past three seasons. The article predicts he will not receive an offer, suggesting that could help him in free agency, and says a return to the Bronx would be surprising.

Happ’s offer remains uncertain

Ian Happ has spent all 10 seasons of his career with the Cubs. He completed the final year of a three-year, $61 million contract in 2026. His numbers fell to a .218/.326/.412 line, a .738 OPS and 24 home runs. The article calls the decision difficult, but its final sentence is cut off before stating its prediction.