How a Democratic US Midterms Win Could Adversely Affect Europe’s Far Right and Ukraine

A possible effect on Europe

Polls suggest Democrats hold an average eight-point lead in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. If they gain control of one or both chambers, the result could shape European attitudes toward their own politics.

Catherine Fieschi, a Carnegie Europe nonresident scholar who studies European far-right politics, said a Democratic win could be interpreted as proof that democracies can recover. She warned that this might ease fears about far-right movements and the possibility of authoritarian rule.

France’s election and migration debate

Marine Le Pen is leading polling for France’s presidential election, scheduled for April 18, with surveys putting her at about 34 percent of the popular vote. Fieschi said voters might view electing Le Pen as a kind of “strong medicine” to make them recognize what could be lost.

A European Council on Foreign Relations poll in June 2025 found clear majorities in Western Europe believed the US political system was broken. In Eastern Europe, majorities said it was working well, though those respondents leaned toward right-wing voters.

Greek Migration Minister Thanos Plevris said European opinion had grown more opposed to asylum and economic migration independently of US politics. He added that US policy had shifted the tone toward deterrence, border protection and increased returns, influencing Europe.

Ukraine and European security

Fieschi warned that President Donald Trump could reach agreements with Russian President Vladimir Putin that pressure Ukraine to accept a deal involving the loss of its eastern Donbas region. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has called that outcome a strategic error that could lead to renewed war, and most Ukrainians oppose it.

Trump has used US early warning about incoming ballistic missiles and Starlink satellite navigation as leverage against Ukraine. He has also twice echoed Russian calls for Zelenskyy to be replaced. Fieschi said Russia was already exploiting vulnerabilities through ongoing cognitive warfare in Europe.

Europe’s changing view of Washington

Observers say Trump’s rejection of the post-World War II order, disregard for democracy and human rights, and actions toward Ukraine have shifted European public opinion. Seventy-three percent of Europeans across age groups said Europe should “go its own way,” up from 63 percent in 2024.