Democratic enthusiasm seen among less-frequent voters in key states of Texas and Georgia, analysis shows

What the analysis measures

The analysis compares early-voting patterns in Texas and Georgia with those recorded before the 2022 midterms. It finds signs of increased Democratic support among voters who participate less regularly, though these voters make up a smaller portion of early ballots than habitual voters.

Neither state registers voters by party. The analysis relies on L2 models that use available information, including primary turnout, to estimate whether voters are likely to support Democrats or Republicans.

Some of the apparent turnout increase may reflect voters who would otherwise have cast ballots later in the pre-election period or on Election Day, the analysis says. The early-voting figures do not establish how those voters will ultimately vote.

Texas shows a sharper shift

As of Monday, voters modeled as likely Democrats accounted for 51% of Texas early ballots, while likely Republicans made up 45%. That represents a 14-percentage-point shift toward Democrats compared with the 2022 early vote, when Republicans led by about eight points after early voting ended.

Among early voters who had not participated in any of the previous four federal elections, 64% were modeled as likely Democratic voters and 21% as likely Republican voters. In the 2022 early vote, the corresponding estimates were 50% and 39%.

Texas has competitive Senate and governor’s races, and Democrats hope to win both statewide contests for the first time since 1994. Donald Trump won the state by 14 points in 2024; he rallied there twice on Tuesday, while Republicans said his visits were intended to motivate their voters.

Georgia turnout and contests

More than 2.1 million people had voted early in Georgia by Wednesday morning, according to the University of Florida’s Election Lab. Habitual voters—those who participated in all four of the last four federal elections—made up a larger share of turnout as of Monday than they had one week before the 2022 midterms.

Among early voters who skipped all four of those federal elections, 52% were modeled as likely Democrats and 12% as likely Republicans. At the comparable point in 2022, the estimates were 51% and 27%.

For voters who participated in two of the four elections, the current estimates are 56% Democratic and 24% Republican, compared with 54% and 35% at the same stage in 2022. Republican Rep. Mike Collins is challenging Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff, while former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, a Democrat, faces Republican businessman Rick Jackson for governor.

Turnout remains a key factor

Less-frequent voters remain far fewer than high-turnout voters in the early vote. Still, their participation could matter in close contests, and polling in Texas has shown its Senate and governor’s races to be tight.

The analysis indicates that Democrats currently have a larger modeled share among several groups of less-habitual early voters. Whether that pattern persists through the remaining early-voting days and Election Day is not yet known.