ANALYSIS | ‘Unintended consequences’: Poll shows UCP independence referendum boosting Alberta NDP | CBC News

Opposition party says campaign-tested party volunteers ready to knock on doors

Jessica Fallis initially feared getting doors slammed in her face canvassing for Alberta’s New Democratic Party in Calgary-Shaw during the 2023 general election campaign that propelled the United Conservative Party to its second majority.

“Some of the [voters at the] doors,” said Fallis, “would be, ‘I'm going to vote for anything but Danielle Smith and the UCP.’”

UCP Premier Danielle Smith may have triggered the independence referendum, according to one longtime Alberta political watcher, because she “wanted to prove to her hardcore base she was committed to direct democracy,” but her efforts to satisfy the party faithful may have unintentionally breathed life into the opposition NDP.

This past spring, the UCP and Smith still enjoyed the longest honeymoon period since the Ralph Klein era.

“One of the unintended consequences is that it's given the NDP increased capacity. It's given the NDP a chance to get their ground game together one full year ahead of a general election,” said Calgary-based pollster Janet Brown, who conducted the random survey of 1,200 Albertans for CBC News.

The referendum, likely in concert with the ongoing trade war between Canada and the U.S., and tensions with U.S. President Donald Trump, has also dialled up Albertans’ attachment to Canada in recent months.

And the referendum offered the party a springboard of sorts to talk about issues other than separation.

NDP door knockers in Calgary-Shaw say the independence referendum — and its ballooning cost — gave them an opportunity to talk about what voters care most about: affordability, education and health care.

“The referendum seems to be a distraction and a cost we just can't afford as a province at this time, is what we heard on the doors when the referendum came up,” added Wilson.

The contrast between the cost of the referendum and “shovels are not in the ground to start building schools” proved an effective message, said David Cloutier, who door knocked for the NDP as a volunteer in the recent byelection and as the NDP candidate in the 2023 provincial election.

The NDP’s president stresses the referendum was not a top-of-mind issue for voters in Calgary-Shaw when the byelection was called in August.