How much would Quebec independence cost? An Alberta study offers clues | CBC News

Parti Québécois would hold a referendum in 1st mandate if it wins Oct. 5 vote

With the Parti Québécois leading in the polls, the party is facing questions about the economic impact of Quebec independence — and a new study on Alberta separation offers a sobering point of comparison.

The delay, St-Pierre Plamondon has argued, is necessary because the unpredictability of Trump's administration would undermine the project. It would be the first time since Jacques Parizeau’s 1994 government that the PQ would take power with the promise to hold a referendum.

"The goal is to end federal waste that duplicates everything we do and loses money like nowhere else, costing us billions of dollars," St-Pierre Plamondon said last month.

According to the document, independence would yield $13 billion to $16 billion in administrative savings by eliminating or merging most of the roughly 230 federal agencies operating in the province.

The report, commissioned by the Alberta government and conducted by experts at the University of Calgary, found that Alberta’s separation from Canada could cost between $50 billion and $170 billion over a five-year period.

It lays out two possible scenarios — a “smooth” option, in which negotiations to exit Canada would be quick and favourable to Alberta, and a “difficult” option, in which those negotiations would drag on and be unfavourable to the province.

"It's hard to see the economic upside from Quebec independence," said Sargent, a longtime economic expert in the federal civil service and the director of economic growth and prosperity at University of Calgary's school of public policy.

With time running out, new poll suggests Alberta separatism support is slipping

In terms of the province's finances, he said a sovereign Quebec would "face a bigger risk premium" that would increase interest rates throughout the economy. This could be passed on to consumers, raising interest rates on people's mortgages and lines of credit.

He said turning an interprovincial border into an international one could slow down that trade, pointing to the economic slowdown in the United Kingdom after it left the European Union.

"You could no longer just drive stuff from Dover to Calais without having to fill in any forms. And it would be the same if Quebec left."