Canada’s health and energy systems face a 2026-27 polycrisis: What happens if both fail simultaneously?

A developing global climate risk

Climate change is making disasters such as dangerous wildfire smoke, flash floods, heat and drought more frequent. Their effects can overlap and trigger further problems rather than staying separate.

Past major El Niño events in 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16 brought severe flooding in some places, drought in others, and broad disruption to ecosystems and economies. Scientists are concerned about the unprecedented pace of surface warming.

Health care faces added strain

Canada’s health-care system is already over capacity, with long waits, delayed surgeries, understaffing and limited primary and long-term care. A 2025 study ranked Canadian access to care ninth among 10 peer countries, ahead only of the United States.

Wildfire smoke has been linked to 1,900 premature deaths each year in Canada and $18 billion in costs. It can worsen cardiovascular, respiratory and neurological conditions; during the 2023 wildfires, asthma-related emergency visits in Ontario rose by 23.6 per cent.

Floods can disrupt transport, medical supplies and patient discharge. In 2023, 20,000 Northwest Territories residents evacuated to Alberta. Underhoused people, people with disabilities, lower-income households and Indigenous communities face disproportionate effects.

Energy supply and demand converge

El Niño-related changes can reduce spring runoff and hydroelectric inflows, leaving reservoirs with less stored energy before summer demand peaks. Extreme heat can also coincide with low wind output, tightening electricity supply as demand for cooling rises.

In June 2026, a heat dome and wind drought in Europe reduced wind generation while high temperatures increased electricity demand. Solar panels can lose roughly 0.4 per cent of capacity for every degree above 25°C, and wildfire smoke can further reduce output. Gas turbines also lose capacity in very hot air.

The central risk is that demand climbs while several energy sources are constrained, leaving less room for the grid to handle another shock. Hospitals have backup power and contingency plans, but the article identifies risks in the wider community, where energy poverty links power and health concerns.

Preparing for connected crises

A combined emergency could mean hospitals coping with smoke-related illness, heatstroke and other conditions while electricity outages disrupt care. Each of these kinds of events has occurred in Canada, though not all at once.

The article describes such overlapping emergencies as polycrises. Examples include the 2013 Calgary floods, the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic and the 2023 Northwest Territories wildfires, which required evacuation. During the COVID-19 pandemic, supply-chain interruptions threatened access to medications and medical equipment. A further viral illness alongside smoke, flooding and power outages could make health-care access and quality worse.