Misinformation and divisive politics doomed Canada’s carbon tax—what the research found
What Canadians thought they paid
In a 2022 survey, researchers asked 1,000 Canadians across five provinces about household fuel use, gasoline spending, utility bills and the carbon tax’s effect on fuel prices. Respondents also estimated their monthly household carbon tax payments.
The researchers found that beliefs about payments did not match actual fossil fuel consumption. People’s estimates of heating costs were roughly accurate, but the pump became a major focus of opposition. Team member Chloé Boutron had previously reported that Canadians knew gasoline prices in their communities remarkably well; the gap was in understanding how much of the price came from the carbon tax.
Politics shaped cost estimates
Political affiliation strongly predicted how respondents viewed the tax’s effect on gasoline and diesel costs. Compared with Liberal voters with similar fossil fuel consumption, Conservative voters believed they paid almost $5,000 more per year in carbon taxes.
Party affiliation also shaped views of rebates. Within the same province, Conservative respondents said they received smaller rebates than voters from other parties, despite researchers’ ability to calculate household rebates using postal codes and household composition.
Rebate information backfired
The researchers found that perceived costs, rather than actual costs, best explained opposition to the tax. When shown a mock-up of their household rebate form, both Liberal and Conservative respondents estimated their rebates more accurately.
But learning that their rebates were larger than expected made Conservative respondents more likely to say they paid more in carbon taxes than they received back. The authors say accurate information had the opposite of its intended effect in a highly partisan debate.
Policy debate and public trust
The authors conclude that a policy they describe as fair, effective at addressing climate change and beneficial to most taxpayers lost support because people did not believe those claims. They point to selective political statements that left out rebates or emphasized the tax during rising consumer costs, despite its minuscule contribution to inflation.
The authors say the experience offers a warning about how toxic political conflict can harm public policy and democracy. Their research also examined public views of carbon tax costs and rebates, building on earlier work about rebate perceptions.
Key points
- Canada repealed its consumer carbon tax in 2025.
- Conservative voters estimated higher carbon tax costs than comparable Liberal voters.
- Political affiliation also shaped reported rebate amounts.
- Showing rebate information improved estimates but sometimes increased opposition.