Storms batter East Asia as Nino is making the Pacific burn with fever, triggering typhoon risks

A season of powerful storms

Coastal communities in the Philippines, Taiwan, China and Japan regularly face severe weather, but recent months have brought an exceptional run of storms. In October, Typhoon Champi approached Taiwan’s north-eastern coast with winds of 295km/h, equivalent to a category five hurricane.

In June, Typhoon Mekkhala and Severe Tropical Storm Higos moved towards Japan’s eastern coast at the same time, prompting one million people to evacuate. Tropical Storm Narra struck China’s southern coast in July, flooding villages and displacing tens of thousands.

Super Typhoon Dolphin spent 16 days crossing the Pacific before hitting eastern China in August. The storm brought heavy floods and dozens of casualties.

El Niño and storm energy

El Niño is a natural climate pattern involving warm water in the eastern Pacific and changes in wind patterns. It can contribute to extreme weather around the world.

The Accumulated Cyclone Energy measure tracks the combined intensity of storms over a season. This year, its forecast for South East and East Asia is nearly twice the 30-year average, while the Pacific has reached record warmth. Ana Liza Solis, head of climatology at the Philippines’ national weather bureau, compared the Pacific to someone “burning with fever.” At a September briefing in Manila, she said it “can go into convulsions soon.”

Unusual paths, difficult risks

In August, Typhoon Chan-Hom crossed Japan from east to west, unlike the more usual south-to-north path. Japan’s prepared authorities evacuated people swiftly, but similar responses could be harder in neighbouring countries.

Research described by Delfino found that higher temperatures increased total accumulated rainfall by 26%. The prospect is serious for a country where monsoon flooding and about 20 tropical storms a year are among the main disaster risks.

Delfino has argued that leaders and officials need a stronger understanding of climate hazards to help communities prepare. China’s climate agency has also warned that sea surface temperatures may continue rising over the next three months because of El Niño.