Texas anti-trans ads are holding Republicans in line, but may not carry Paxton to victory in the race

Ads shape voter choices

The 2024 Trump campaign ad “Kamala Harris is for they/them” was credited by top Trump strategists with persuading voters. This cycle, an estimated $58 million has gone toward ads about transgender issues from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, the Republican Senate nominee, and his allies.

Voter discussions in Texas found that the issue remains powerful among wavering conservatives. The ads are stirring anger among some Republican voters and making others reluctant to cross over to Talarico, though they may not be enough to put Paxton ahead.

Two Republican responses

Susan, another Fort Worth-area voter who usually backs Republicans, said she could not bring herself to vote for Paxton. She may abstain or vote Libertarian as a protest, but Talarico’s views on transgender issues involving minors also trouble her. Ads have circulated his past remarks on biological sex; he recanted them last month on Fox News.

Culture and policy concerns

Susan said the transgender debate affected her children’s high school and mattered more to her than issues where she was closer to Democrats. She opposed the war with Iran and was frustrated with Trump’s handling of immigration enforcement, corruption and the economy.

In a Fort Worth-area group of eight right-leaning voters, six had voted for Sen. John Cornyn in the primary, and several received mailers addressed to their children. Seven said candidates’ positions on transgender policy for children would factor into their votes. Conservative Hispanic voters in Harris County also described cultural issues as important, despite unhappiness with the economy and the immigration crackdown.