Arab and ultra-Orthodox kingmakers could determine israel election outcome despite attacks from rival camps

Arab parties face attacks

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and leaders of the self-described Zionist opposition have ruled out forming a government with parties representing Palestinian citizens. Yet both sides accuse their rivals of relying on those parties or their support to secure power.

Likud attack adverts warn that Arab-led lists could become kingmakers if Netanyahu loses and a government led by former army chief Gadi Eisenkot takes office. Analyst Yossi Mekelberg said Netanyahu might accept Ra’am’s support if it helped him remain in power.

The alliance, which includes Hadash and Balad, has offered a possible safety net: it could agree not to oppose an anti-Netanyahu coalition in a confidence vote without joining the government. It says any support would come with conditions, including a path to Palestinian statehood and action against organised crime.

Court reverses disqualifications

The election is the first since the Hamas-led attack in southern Israel on October 7, 2023, which killed an estimated 1,200 people and was followed by Israel’s war on Gaza. The conflict has accompanied a shift to the right, with Arab-led parties increasingly accused by right-wing figures of complicity in the assault.

On September 23, the Central Elections Committee voted to disqualify both lists and two individual candidates. On October 2, the Supreme Court unanimously overturned the disqualifications of Ra’am and the Joint List; it also overturned Cassif’s disqualification by a 7-2 majority.

Ra’am changes its political structure

Founded in 1996, Ra’am has moved away from its religiously conservative roots. In December 2025, party leader Abbas said its political decision-making body would separate from its religious council.

Eight months later, Ra’am chose its electoral list independently for the first time. It placed Yoav Segalovitz, a Jewish Zionist and former senior police commander who served as deputy public security minister in the Bennett-Lapid government, second on its slate.

Ultra-Orthodox allies break ranks

Ultra-Orthodox parties have long been among Netanyahu’s most reliable coalition partners. Opponents accuse them of avoiding military service while receiving substantial state welfare support. Their priorities include protecting religious students from conscription, securing welfare for large families and maintaining public funding for schools and other institutions. Many men in the community study rather than work, the article says.

Last year, the parties broke with Likud over its failure to pass a draft exemption. United Torah Judaism left the coalition, while Shas quit the government but kept its 11 politicians in the parliamentary coalition. Shas later surrendered its coalition committee roles, and both parties boycotted coalition bills.