How Energy Costs Could Raise Canadian Grocery Prices

Higher energy costs can raise what food producers pay, but it is not yet clear how much, or when, any increase could reach Canadian shoppers.

Food & CookingNovember 1, 20264 min readHow Sureno writes this

The short version

Energy costs could put upward pressure on Canadian grocery prices if higher oil, diesel and fertilizer costs reach food producers and are passed along to stores and shoppers, but the amount and timing are unknown. ²³
Loblaw chair Galen Weston linked the risk to disruptions in global oil supplies connected to the Middle East war. ²³
Weston said he was concerned about added pressure across the food supply chain, but did not predict a return to the roughly 11 per cent food inflation reported during the earlier surge. ¹³
The sources describe a risk, not proof that grocery prices have already risen because of this energy shock. ²³

How could energy costs affect grocery prices?

Energy is one of the costs involved in producing and moving food. If oil and diesel become more expensive, food producers may face higher costs for farm work and transport. Fertilizer prices can also matter to producers. Those pressures could travel through the supply chain and eventually affect what shoppers pay. ²³

That chain of events is possible, not automatic. The reporting says added costs could show up in store prices, but does not provide estimates of how much they might add to a grocery bill or when consumers might notice a change. ²³

What did Galen Weston say about food inflation?

At a Toronto event on Friday, Loblaw chair Galen Weston said he was worried that several forces could keep pressure on the food supply chain. He pointed to disruptions to global oil supply linked to the war in the Middle East, along with diesel, fertilizer prices and El Niño. ³

Weston said he did not expect food inflation to return to the roughly 11 per cent level he referred to from the earlier surge. That is a statement about his expectation, not a guarantee about future prices. The available reports do not give a detailed forecast for grocery inflation. ³

Does this mean Canadian grocery prices will rise?

Not necessarily by a particular amount, and not necessarily right away. The reports describe a risk that higher costs for producers could be reflected in store prices. They do not establish that every food item will become more expensive or that a rise has already happened because of the reported energy disruption. ²³

The effect on shoppers depends on how costs change and how businesses along the food chain respond. The sources do not quantify those steps or identify which products could be affected most. For now, the careful takeaway is that energy costs may add pressure, while the size and timing remain uncertain.

Why are energy and fertilizer part of the concern?

Oil and diesel are among the costs Weston identified as relevant to food producers. He also pointed to fertilizer, whose prices he said had recently been peaking. The reports connect those inputs to the possibility of higher costs further along the food chain, but do not provide figures for their individual effects. ³

Weston also named the Strait of Hormuz as a pressure point he is watching. The reporting links the concern to disruptions in global oil supply, but does not establish how long disruptions will last or how strongly they will affect Canadian food costs. ²³

What does this mean for shoppers now?

It is a warning about possible future pressure, rather than a precise forecast for a household budget. Shoppers should not read it as proof that all grocery prices are about to jump. The reports do not say which products might be affected, how quickly costs could pass through, or whether retailers would absorb some of them. ²³

Grocery prices have been a source of public concern in Canada. During the earlier period of high food inflation, grocery inflation reached 11.4 per cent year over year in 2022, according to the Toronto Star report. That history helps explain why warnings about another rise draw attention, but it does not show what will happen next. ¹

What we don't know yet

How long will disruptions to global oil supplies last, and how much will they affect energy costs?
How much could higher diesel and fertilizer costs add to producers' expenses?
When, and to what extent, might added costs appear in Canadian grocery prices?
Which foods, if any, would be most affected?

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Questions people ask

Will food prices go up in Canada because of oil costs?

They could face added pressure if higher oil and related costs raise what food producers pay and those costs reach stores. The reporting does not establish that prices have already risen for this reason or predict the size of any change. ²³

What did Galen Weston say about grocery inflation?

Weston said he was worried that several pressures could continue to affect the food supply chain. He referred to oil-supply disruption, diesel, fertilizer prices and El Niño, but did not forecast a return to the earlier roughly 11 per cent rate. ³

Why do diesel and fertilizer prices matter to food costs?

They are among the costs affecting food producers. If those costs rise, they could add pressure along the supply chain and may be reflected in store prices, though the sources do not quantify the effect. ²³

Are Canadian grocery prices already rising because of the Middle East war?

The reports say disruptions to global oil supplies linked to the war are raising costs for food producers and could affect store prices. They do not provide evidence that a specific increase in Canadian grocery prices has already been caused by those disruptions. ²

Did Galen Weston predict another 11 per cent rise in food prices?

No. The report says Weston was concerned about continued pressure, but said he was not worried that food inflation would return to the roughly 11 per cent level he cited. That view is not a guarantee of future prices. ³

Sources

Loblaw chair Galen Weston says grocers ‘cannot control prices,’ jokes he was ‘traumatized’ by public outrage — Toronto Star
Canadian grocery billionaire fears food inflation is coming back — National Post, 2026-10-31
Loblaw's Weston Warns Energy Shock Could Raise Food Prices — Briefs Finance, 2026-10-31

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