Abu Dhabi talks offer little hope Putin is ready to make peace

Talks follow Oleshky evacuation

The three countries began a new round of trilateral negotiations in Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates, on November 10. The talks were set to continue on November 11.

Oleshky faced a worsening food emergency after a crisis that began in December 2025. Under Russian occupation, the town’s population fell from 25,000 to 2,000. Ukrainian and Russian intelligence services agreed to a local ceasefire so residents could leave for either Ukraine or Russia if they wished.

Humanitarian effort and politics

The article argues that the Oleshky operation is unlikely to generate progress in the Abu Dhabi negotiations. It says Moscow’s cooperation reflected an effort to appeal to Donald Trump, rather than a shift toward peace.

Before the ceasefire, the White House said Melania Trump had initiated discussions in her role as an “Exclusive Intermediary,” according to the article. That account downplayed both Vatican efforts and earlier talks between the Ukrainian and Russian intelligence services. Moscow endorsed Washington’s version, and Kyiv had to align with it, the article says.

Medinsky leads Russian delegation

The article sees his return as a sign that Russia’s position has not changed. It says Moscow still seeks Ukraine’s surrender, which Ukraine rejected in both earlier years and continues to reject.

Moscow counts on Western strain

Putin appears to view Russia as holding the stronger negotiating position, the article says, drawing on both mistaken and realistic assumptions. One concern for Ukraine is the strain on Western weapons support: European countries continue to finance supplies, but Ukraine relies heavily on US weapons.

The article says the US-Israeli war against Iran depleted some American stockpiles, while limited capacity to replenish them could leave gaps, particularly in air defence. It adds that a Democratic victory in the US midterm elections would not resolve a shortage that is material, rather than political.

The article also points to political developments that Moscow may see as favorable. It describes Marine Le Pen as a likely Russian bet for 2027, notes the rise of Alternative for Germany, and says Trump remains important to Russia despite Republican losses in the 2026 midterms.