One-Year, $12 Million Deal Predicted as Cincinnati Reds Weigh Re-Signing Important Player Tyler Stephenson This Offseason

A pivotal choice for Cincinnati

The Reds have a consequential offseason ahead after missing contention this season, following a postseason appearance a year earlier. Their moves could shape the franchise’s course over the next several years.

One central question is whether to retain Stephenson. Cincinnati held onto the catcher at the trade deadline instead of seeking prospects, but he is now a free agent and the club must decide whether to pay to keep him.

A one-year contract prediction

Sports Illustrated writers Nick Selbe and Will Laws assembled predictions for leading free agents. Selbe forecast that Stephenson would return to Cincinnati on a one-year, $12 million contract.

Selbe noted that injuries limited Stephenson early in his career, but said he has since appeared with greater consistency. Over the past four seasons, he has averaged 15 home runs and 460 plate appearances, according to Selbe. Selbe also described everyday catchers who hit around league average as difficult to find, and said Stephenson could attract interest from multiple teams this winter.

Stephenson’s value to the Reds

Stephenson has been a productive presence in Cincinnati’s lineup. He recorded an OPS+ of at least 100 in six of his seven seasons with the Reds, and his career OPS is .757.

The team’s farm system lacks the depth to make letting him leave an easy choice. That may help explain why Cincinnati did not trade him before the deadline.

A bridge to Alfredo Duno

Alfredo Duno could be ready for the major leagues within two years. Keeping Stephenson could benefit the Reds while Duno develops into a potential everyday catcher. Stephenson could mentor Duno during that transition, giving the club continuity behind the plate while its prospect prepares for a larger role in Cincinnati.