World heads toward 2.6 C as UN climate talks start in year of disasters, energy price shocks and fast rising temperatures

Energy systems face competing pressures

For more than a century, coal, oil and gas have powered economic growth while releasing emissions that warm the planet. Renewable energy is gaining ground because it is cheaper and cleaner, but countries are using it alongside fossil fuels to meet rising demand from artificial intelligence and economic development.

Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine caused an energy shock in Europe. This year, U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and a sharp rise in fossil fuel prices, prompting countries to reconsider their energy systems.

Promises and funding on agenda

A central task is putting commitments to transition away from fossil fuels into practice. Turkey is promoting a separate plan to shift more energy use, including transportation, to electricity produced by solar and wind power.

Negotiators will also discuss how to provide promised funding to poorer countries. The money is intended to support renewable energy, adaptation to a warmer world and recovery from climate-related damage.

“Who pays” is a difficult question, said Niklas Höhne, co-founder of Germany’s NewClimate Institute. He said the United States, described by him as the largest contributor, has dropped out, with no other player able to take its place.

Warming raises growing risks

Eleven years ago, the world was on course for 4 C of warming above preindustrial levels by century’s end. Nations set a goal in 2015 to hold warming below 2 C, with a preferred limit of 1.5 C. The U.N. now puts warming at 1.4 C and says the world is heading toward 2.6 C.

Johan Rockström said more frequent and extreme floods, droughts and storms are likely. He also warned that the planet could approach tipping points, including changes to ocean currents and the collapse of the Amazon rainforest.

Pressure to speed the transition

Fossil fuel combustion is the main cause of warming, but conference agreements have rarely directly targeted it because decisions require consensus. In April, 56 countries gathered at a separate conference to press for a more direct phaseout. Brazil, which hosted COP30 last year, released a voluntary road map this month for moving away from fossil fuels.

Climate Analytics chief executive Bill Hare said governments and incumbent industries, rather than technology, are obstructing progress. Youth activists Ashley Lashley of Barbados and Singapore’s Qiyun Woo voiced frustration about the pace of action and the effects of extreme weather on their generation.