Ten years on, has the Paris Agreement kept the world’s climate promises?

A shared climate framework

Adopted by 196 parties at COP21 in Paris on December 12, 2015, the Paris Agreement took effect on November 4, 2016. Today, its members are 193 countries and the European Union, making 194 parties in all.

Countries are expected to submit stronger NDCs every five years, alongside a recurring assessment of worldwide progress. The agreement also addresses emissions reporting, climate finance and assistance for developing countries.

Temperatures move beyond limits

In 2024, global temperatures exceeded 1.5C above preindustrial levels over a full calendar year for the first time. The longer-term warming average is about 1.4C, and scientists expect it to pass 1.5C around the end of this decade.

UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen warned that each extra fraction of a degree and each additional year above 1.5C increases climate dangers. She cited deadly floods, heatwaves and wildfires affecting many nations this year.

Progress and persistent emissions

When the agreement was signed, existing policies pointed to about 3.6C of warming by 2100. Climate Action Tracker now puts that projection at roughly 2.6C, following policy changes and growth in clean energy.

Clean-energy investment is now nearly twice investment in fossil fuels, yet emissions reductions have not been fast enough to preserve the 1.5C goal. Worldwide emissions are 9 percent higher than in 2016, as increases in some places have outweighed declines elsewhere.

China, the United States and India together account for more than half of annual global emissions. China emits more than the US, India, Russia and Japan combined, while the United States has the largest historical carbon emissions.

Different paths across countries

Emissions continue to rise in China, India and Indonesia as these fast-growing economies use more coal to meet growing electricity demand. Indonesia has entered the top 10 emitters, taking Canada’s place.

Germany, Japan and the United States have reduced emissions, largely by replacing coal with renewables and gas. Those cuts have not been enough to offset increases in other countries.