ABC voter polls explain Democrats’ US House win: What the poll analysis shows
Trump’s standing shaped votes
About six in 10 people who voted in House races disapproved of Trump’s performance, including 53% who strongly disapproved. Those who strongly disapproved favored Democrats by 89 percentage points. By contrast, roughly two in 10 voters strongly approved of Trump and supported Republicans by 96 points.
Around two-thirds of House voters said Trump had the wrong priorities, and a similar share felt he put his personal interests ahead of the country’s. These groups chose Democrats over Republicans by 69 and 73 percentage points, respectively. More voters said their ballot was meant to oppose Trump than support him, 43% to 16%; 96% of the opposition group voted for Democrats.
Economic concerns favored Democrats
Three-quarters of House voters viewed the economy negatively, and they backed Democrats by 40 percentage points. Among the roughly one-third who rated the economy poorly, the Democratic margin was 71 points. More voters also said their family’s financial situation had worsened rather than improved over the past two years, by more than two to one, and they largely supported Democrats.
About eight in 10 voters said inflation had caused their family moderate or severe hardship in the past year. Most supported Democrats, and 62% blamed Trump’s policies for unusually high prices rather than factors beyond his control. Roughly seven in 10 said the economic system generally favors wealthy people over most Americans; they backed Democrats by about three to one.
Gains among younger and independent voters
Democrats won roughly three-quarters of voters under 30, improving on their typical lead among younger voters. In 2024, they had received just over half of this group’s votes, according to ABC News Voter Polls.
About one-third of voters did not identify with either major party. They supported Democrats over Republicans by 56% to 39%. The report also says independent voters had divided roughly evenly between the parties in the previous two elections, citing Edison Research.
Broader pattern behind the result
Democrats made modest but meaningful gains across many voter groups, while Trump’s unpopularity and negative views of the economy aided their House performance. Together, the polling findings describe a broad set of concerns that aligned with Democratic support.
The projections mark the first time since 2020 that Democrats are expected to retake the House. The poll findings describe voter preferences and attitudes; they do not provide a final seat count.
Key points
- Democrats are projected to regain the House for the first time since 2020.
- Strong Trump disapproval aligned with a large Democratic advantage among House voters.
- Economic worries, including inflation hardship, also favored Democrats.
- Democrats gained support among voters under 30 and those outside the major parties.