Can Democrats overturn Trump’s Senate majority? Midterms poll tracker highlights competitive races

The Senate control math

At the beginning of the year, a Democratic takeover appeared unlikely. Since then, Democrats have become competitive in states Trump won decisively in 2024, while Republicans have also pursued seats held by Democrats.

Ossoff leads in Georgia

Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff is seeking reelection against Republican Rep. Mike Collins. Ossoff first won office in Georgia’s 2021 Senate runoff, alongside Sen. Raphael Warnock, giving Democrats control of the Senate.

The report says Ossoff’s campaign videos have gone viral and fueled speculation about a possible 2028 presidential bid. He has criticized Trump’s election-fraud claims in Georgia, calling the president the “world’s most famous sore loser,” according to the report.

Major polls show Ossoff ahead. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution and University of Georgia polls put him at 48 percent and Collins at 44 percent, with 12 percent undecided.

New Hampshire seat contest

Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas and former Sen. John Sununu are competing for the seat being vacated by Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen. Sununu previously held the seat and defeated Shaheen in 2002; she won their rematch six years later.

Sununu is the brother of former Gov. Chris Sununu and the son of former Gov. John H. Sununu. Pappas’s family owns the Puritan Backroom, a Manchester restaurant that has operated since 1917 and claims to have invented the chicken tender. As of November 3, PollCheck put Pappas at 50.2 percent and Sununu at 43.5 percent, estimating an 84 percent chance the seat would remain Democratic.

Maine and North Carolina races

In Maine, Democrats selected former state Senate president Troy Jackson at an emergency convention after original nominee Graham Platner withdrew following an accusation of sexual assault. Platner’s campaign had prompted Gov. Janet Mills, the Senate Democrats’ preferred candidate, to suspend her campaign before voters cast ballots.

Most polls showed Jackson ahead of Republican Sen. Susan Collins as of November 3. The New York Times/Siena University poll gave Jackson 51 percent and Collins 45 percent.

In North Carolina, former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper is challenging Republican Michael Whatley. Cooper is the party’s favored recruit in a state where Democrats have not won a federal race since Barack Obama carried it in 2008; the report says election-day polls show Cooper ahead, but its stated margin is cut off.