Analytics Raise Stakes for Oregon’s Remaining Schedule After Ohio State’s USC Loss
Oregon’s postseason chances
Oregon is No. 12 in ESPN’s Week 10 Football Power Index. The model assigns the Ducks a 4.2% chance to make the College Football Playoff, a 2.8% chance to win the Big Ten and a 0.4% chance to reach the national championship game.
The Ducks have three losses, but the ranking leaves open a route to the postseason if the selection committee views the team similarly. Oregon would need to win its remaining games and rely on results outside its control.
Schedule strength could matter
Oregon’s schedule may support its case. All but one of its opponents so far—the Portland State Vikings—rank among ESPN FPI’s top 50, and five of the Ducks’ first eight opponents appeared in the Top 25 at some point in 2026.
Only UCLA and Indiana, ranked fifth and sixth, have fewer than two losses among Big Ten teams. Oregon’s remaining league games after Ohio State are against Michigan, Michigan State and Washington; two are at home.
Ohio State also faces pressure
The Buckeyes come into the game at 6-2, after losing 30-18 to an unranked USC team. USC’s victory followed Ohio State’s 19-15 win over Indiana and a 24-23 loss to Texas on Sept. 12.
A loss to Oregon could damage Ohio State’s playoff hopes. The Buckeyes still have Northwestern, Nebraska and Michigan left on their schedule.
History adds another layer
Oregon’s two wins over Ohio State came in the teams’ last two regular-season meetings, including one in Columbus and one at Autzen Stadium. Ohio State won their most recent meeting, 41-21, in the 2025 Rose Bowl.
The Buckeyes are at home and coming off a second loss, making the matchup a difficult test for Oregon. The result could also affect other teams’ postseason prospects.
Key points
- ESPN’s FPI gives Oregon a 4.2% chance to reach the College Football Playoff.
- Oregon likely needs to win out and get help from results elsewhere.
- Ohio State’s 30-18 loss to USC raised the pressure on its matchup with Oregon.
- Oregon’s remaining Big Ten opponents are Michigan, Michigan State and Washington.