Here Are the Key Midterm Races That Could Decide Control of Congress

House contests draw attention

The path to a House majority runs through competitive districts, including four Republican-held seats in suburban Philadelphia, the Lehigh Valley and central Pennsylvania. If Democrats flip all four, they could move within reach of a majority, making the state an early indicator of the night’s direction.

Iowa Republicans hold all four House seats, but three are expected to feature tight races. In the 1st District, incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks is seeking reelection after winning in 2020 by just six votes; in the 3rd, Rep. Zach Nunn is running for a third term in a district described as Iowa’s traditionally bluest.

The northeastern 2nd District, now held by Senate candidate Ashley Hinson, pits Republican Joe Mitchell, 29, against Democrat Lindsay James, 42. Democrats face a tougher challenge there than in the other Iowa contests.

Colorado offers contrasting races

In Denver’s deep-blue 1st District, Melat Kiros, 29, is heavily favored to become the first Gen Z member of Congress. She beat longtime incumbent Rep. Diana DeGette in the primary.

In western Colorado, Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert faces a closer-than-expected reelection contest against Democrat Eileen Laubacher. The 4th District leans strongly Republican, and President Trump won it by more than 17 points two years ago, but recent polling indicates a close race.

Texas tests Latino support

Republicans are seeking to preserve gains among Latino voters in South Texas from 2024. In the Corpus Christi-area 15th District, Rep. Monica De La Cruz faces Democrat Bobby Pulido, a Latin Grammy-winning music artist. The account says many voters are unfamiliar with De La Cruz following a GOP-led effort to redraw districts.

Near San Antonio, Johnny Garcia, a longtime county sheriff’s deputy, is seeking to flip the newly redrawn, open 35th District from Republican Carlos De La Cruz, Monica’s brother. Democrats are also trying to hold the Laredo-area 28th District, represented by Henry Cuellar, and the 34th District, represented by Vicente Gonzalez; both were drawn to be more favorable to Republicans.

Senate control remains uncertain

Republicans are defending a 53-47 Senate majority. Although 35 seats are on the ballot, the contest is expected to hinge on 11 battleground races. In Maine, Republican Sen. Susan Collins is seeking a sixth term after 29 years in the Senate. She chairs the Senate Appropriations Committee and faces former state Senate President Troy Jackson, selected at the state party convention to replace Graham Platner, whose campaign was described as scandal-plagued. Kamala Harris won Maine by three points in 2024.

Ohio offers Democrats a chance to regain a Senate seat in a state that has shifted toward Republicans in recent cycles. Former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, who lost reelection in 2024, is challenging Republican Sen. Jon Husted in a race for the final two years of a term.

Midterms put policy on ballot

Midterm elections take place halfway through a presidential term, and the president is not on the ballot. They often serve as a referendum on the president and the party in power. Alongside congressional and gubernatorial contests, voters will consider measures involving redistricting, abortion rights and a proposed billionaire tax in California.