89 House and 15 Senate races: 3 things to watch on election night and beyond
Early races and results
The Cook Political Report rates 89 House races and 15 Senate races as somewhat or intensely competitive. Early results may help show where the contests are shifting. In Kentucky’s 6th Congressional District, polls close at 6 p.m. EST. Donald Trump carried the Lexington district by 15 points in 2024, but Cook recently changed its rating to “toss-up.” An early Democratic win could signal strength in deeply Republican territory.
Florida’s last polls close at 8 p.m. EST. The state counted 90 percent of ballots by 8:07 p.m. EST in 2024, according to the Associated Press. Results could indicate whether Republican redistricting helped flip Democratic seats or put Republican seats at risk.
Senate races to follow
Maine’s Senate race will be watched, though it is not expected to provide an early indicator. Republican Sen. Susan Collins is seeking to win by outperforming the head of her party.
Early returns from South Carolina and Ohio are also a focus. Republicans are defending seats in both states, which Trump won twice.
Turnout across key groups
Turnout is central to the outcome, particularly for Republicans in red areas of key states. Rep. Ryan Mackenzie, R-Pa., said candidates see matching Trump’s 2024 vote total as important to their chances of survival.
In Michigan, attention will turn to turnout among Black voters, a key Democratic base. Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed and Republican opponent Mike Rogers both visited Black churches on Sunday.
Election-related court cases
Potential lawsuits, including cases involving the Department of Justice, are being monitored for Election Day and the days afterward. Courts are already hearing and ruling on election-related cases from Alaska to Pennsylvania.
Democrats have reportedly recruited thousands of lawyers to monitor polling places, while Republicans also have attorneys ready. Legal action is likely, and court proceedings could be especially important if the election is close.
Key points
- The Cook Political Report rates 89 House and 15 Senate races competitive.
- Kentucky and Florida could provide early clues about party performance.
- Turnout among Republican voters and Black voters in Michigan will be closely watched.
- Election-related lawsuits are likely, whether or not the result is close.