How independent voters and candidates could shape US midterms—and what to know

Independents and party leanings

A record number of Americans identify as independent, potentially giving these voters influence over control of the US Congress and state legislatures. Yet independent and third-party candidates win few federal or state seats, while Democrats and Republicans have dominated US politics for generations.

Most self-described independents lean toward one of the major parties. Those with no partisan leaning account for about 7–10 percent of the electorate. Marist polling suggests that in the 2026 midterms, 52 percent of likely independent voters support Democrats and 39 percent support Republicans. Republican strategist Lesley Shedd told Al Jazeera that many independents identify that way because they disagree with their party on some issues or do not want to feel tied to Washington’s political culture.

Barriers facing outside candidates

Independent candidates face hurdles in high-profile federal and statewide contests. Winner-take-all elections and single-member congressional districts can work against candidates outside the two major parties and discourage voters from supporting them.

The major parties also have substantial campaign resources. During the 2026 midterm campaign cycle, the Democratic National Committee raised nearly $252.3m, while the Republican National Committee took in about $341m.

Candidates to watch

The Independent Leadership Council, launched in July by former Democrat-turned-independent Senator Joe Manchin, offers donors and campaign resources to independent congressional candidates. The project has raised more than $10m.

Bennett, an independent candidate in Maine, is among 11 independent or third-party contenders for governor or the US Senate whom Simmons expects to clear the 5 percent vote threshold often used to measure viability. Simmons identified Nebraska Senate candidate Dan Osborn, a 51-year-old Navy veteran, as the alternative candidate most likely to win, with the race rated a toss-up by RealClearPolling.

In Montana, Simmons sees an opening for an independent, but a three-way contest could produce a spoiler effect. Democratic Senate candidate Alani Bankhead could draw from the centre-left and anti-Republican voters supporting Bodnar, potentially benefiting the Republican candidate.

Pressure beyond winning

Independent candidates in Idaho and South Dakota are not forecast to win, but they are expected to make Republicans spend money, campaign time and attention on seats they might otherwise treat as safe. Simmons said independents’ greatest impact may be the pressure they have historically placed on major parties to introduce new policies or govern more effectively.