Shabana Mahmood softens immigration plans in face of cabinet backlash

Care workers receive an exception

Under the revised approach, as many as 300,000 care workers and dependants could apply for indefinite leave to remain after five years. The exception follows resistance from fellow cabinet ministers and Labour MPs to the proposed 15-year wait for low-paid workers.

Earlier proposals set a five-year route for an estimated 146,000 care workers and 136,000 dependants. Another account of the initial plans said 117,000 low-paid care workers and 79,000 dependants would face waits of up to 15 years. The figures differ within the reporting.

Longer waits remain for others

The standard qualifying period for settlement was due to rise from five years to 10. Workers in occupations below graduate level, including care workers, were among those who could have faced 15 years, subject to proposed exemptions and reductions.

People arriving in breach of immigration rules would face at least 20 years before applying. The plans also set a 10-year penalty for people who enter illegally: those working or studying would wait 20 years, while those doing neither would face a minimum of 30 years.

Different routes by earnings

People earning more than £125,000 would be able to settle after three years. Those earning more than £50,271, along with some public service workers such as doctors, nurses and teachers, would qualify after five years.

Most refugees would need to meet language requirements and have no debts. The proposed exception covers a small number entering through designated safe and legal routes, including a reopened scheme for Afghan women and girls and Palestinians; other refugees would not qualify if they had accessed public funds.

Costs and competing estimates

Home Office projections last year estimated that permanent residency for care-sector staff and adult family members arriving from 2026 to 2030 could cost the public purse roughly £10bn over their lifetimes. The Institute for Public Policy Research estimated that skilled migrants and adult dependants expected to settle under current rules would make a net lifetime contribution of about £115bn through taxes. The Home Office has granted about 200,000 health and care worker visas over the past five years, with additional people arriving as dependants.