Polls Say Trump, El-Sayed Make Final Push Before US Midterms as Democrats Lead

Democrats Lead National Polls

A THP/MM survey conducted on October 28 and 29 showed Democrats ahead nationally, 54 percent to 41 percent. An Emerson College poll from October 24 to 26 found a 10-point Democratic lead.

Other polling points to uncertainty in individual contests. One Emerson survey showed Hamilton leading Marshall 50 percent to 47 percent, while commentators warned that close Senate races could be affected by polling error.

Republicans may also be harder for pollsters to reach. Heye said some Republicans do not want to answer pollsters’ calls, and recalled an Iowa outlier poll from two years earlier that damaged confidence in the polling industry.

Cost Of Living Shapes Campaigns

Affordability has been a major focus for Democrats, as families face higher costs partly linked to tariffs and the war in Iran. Heye said campaigns need to explain how they would address the economic problems voters encounter.

Trump has held telephone rallies for Republican candidates in close races. Asked whether Republicans had found a persuasive closing message, Heye said they had not. Voters’ views of Democrats are also negative, according to one strategist, unlike in 2018, when the party was viewed more positively. Lake said many voters want change but remain unsure what either party would do.

Final Events In Iowa And Michigan

Trump is scheduled to campaign in Iowa and Kansas on Sunday. He had cancelled both appearances before reversing course on Friday, saying they should not have been cancelled in the first place.

El-Sayed, a Democratic candidate who has faced increased Islamophobic attacks, is holding events in Michigan. Lake, who is working with his campaign, said affordability is central to his message.

Turnout Could Decide Results

More than 51 million Americans have already voted, according to reports. Both parties have urged voters to use mail-in ballots or make plans to vote on Tuesday. Lake identified turnout, young voters and the gender gap as important factors to watch. She also said individual close races could shift because of polling error.