229 House seats projected for Democrats as midterm elections preview reveals what might shape the year

Prices and campaign spending

Midterm elections take place every two years, between presidential contests. New Yorker politics columnist Susan Glasser said they are traditionally seen as judgments on a president’s performance and described this year’s vote as historic in several ways.

Glasser pointed to frustration over the cost of gas and groceries, along with broader economic concerns. Wesleyan University professor Erika Franklin Fowler, who studies political ads, said campaign spending is also on track to set records.

AI enters political advertising

Fowler said campaigns are using computer-generated scenes that can make candidates appear to say or do things they did not. She said viewers may not realize that such scenes are fabricated. Fowler said there is no federal regulation of AI in advertising and that many such ads do not carry a disclaimer. CBS News political director Anthony Salvanto said voters’ motivations include multiple issues, adding, “It’s all of the above.”

House and Senate outlook

Salvanto said the president is a major factor for congressional voters. He said two-thirds reported voting either to support him, at 26%, or to oppose his policies, at 41%.

The latest CBS News House model projected Democrats to win 229 seats, enough for a majority. Salvanto said some Republican-leaning states had become more competitive in Senate contests, though he cautioned that this did not mean Democrats would win them.

Concerns about certification

Glasser expressed concern about what could happen after voting, citing Donald Trump’s statement that he would not accept results he believed were improperly conducted. She said she did not consider the possibility of interference speculative.

Glasser said Trump was the only president in American history to reject defeat in a legitimate election. She said Trump and his allies might try to delay or block certification of incoming senators in close races. Glasser called the midterms crucial to the system of checks and balances, saying the outcome could set the country on different paths.