Israel election deadlock: four scenarios could play out as neither bloc finds a path to majority

A coalition across party lines

One possible route is a grand coalition between Netanyahu’s Likud and Eisenkot’s centrist Yashar party. But Eisenkot campaigned on removing Netanyahu and again called for him to leave public life, citing a loss of public trust.

Before the vote, Israeli and US media reported that Netanyahu had discussed possible strikes on Iranian targets with the United States. The article does not establish how those discussions might affect coalition negotiations.

Arab parties hold pivotal seats

The opposition bloc’s only numerical route to 61 seats would require support from Arab-majority parties. Preliminary projections put their combined total at 19 seats, following strong turnout among Palestinian citizens of Israel.

Ra’am is projected to win about seven seats, while the Joint List alliance is projected to take 12. Eisenkot and most Jewish opposition figures have repeatedly rejected forming a government reliant on Arab parties.

Possible defections to Likud

Netanyahu could try to persuade hawkish opposition figures to join his coalition. Yet those politicians campaigned to remove him, and both have made compulsory military service for ultra-Orthodox seminary students a central demand. That policy is strongly opposed by Netanyahu’s long-standing ultra-Orthodox partners, Shas and United Torah Judaism, creating another obstacle to a workable coalition.

Fresh elections remain possible

If talks do not produce a viable government before statutory deadlines, the legal process calls for parliament to be dissolved and new elections to be scheduled. Electoral analysts say Likud strategists may see advantages in another vote. They suggest Arab turnout could be harder to sustain if it brings no influence, while small right-wing parties that fell below the 3.25 per cent threshold could face pressure to unite behind larger parties.