Nova massacre shapes Israeli elections as October 7 looms large; Netanyahu fights for political future

Security record under scrutiny

Netanyahu, who has led Israel for much of the past three decades, built his public image around security. But allegations that he dismissed warnings from Egyptian and Emirati intelligence before the attacks have intensified questions about his handling of the crisis.

Crowds of between 60,000 and 400,000 have gathered in Tel Aviv week after week, calling for an independent state commission of inquiry. Netanyahu has repeatedly rejected those demands, while former Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar has sued him for three million shekels, alleging he invented a “blood libel” against the agency to shift blame.

Anger over hostages and aftermath

The Nova massacre is a significant issue for voters: two in three Israelis consider it central to their voting decision, according to the article’s account. The election is the first national vote since the 2023 attacks.

Rivals challenge Netanyahu

Former military chief Gadi Eisenkot has made an independent inquiry into October 7 a central campaign pledge. Avigdor Lieberman, a former defence minister who now leads a rival secular right-wing faction, has accused Netanyahu of being too lenient on military drafts and action against Hamas.

Netanyahu, Eisenkot, former prime minister Naftali Bennett and Lieberman all oppose an independent Palestinian state. They support permanent Israeli military control over the West Bank and settlement expansion in Area C.

Legal cases raise stakes

Netanyahu is on trial in three cases—1000, 2000 and 4000—on charges of bribery, fraud and breach of trust. A bribery conviction can carry up to 10 years in prison; fraud and breach of trust carry maximum terms of three years.

Israeli law allows a serving prime minister to remain in office while on trial, unlike a private citizen. If Netanyahu loses power, he could lose the institutional protection that currently shields him from immediate criminal accountability. Opinion polls indicate a tight race, with no party showing a clear route to the 61 seats required for a parliamentary majority.