Israel election exit polls show rebuke for Netanyahu, but no clear winner

Exit polls point to losses

Counting is under way in an election many Israelis have called the most consequential in their country’s history. The first official results were expected around 1am local time on Wednesday, after turnout reached 77.7% by 10pm Tuesday.

Exit polls put Netanyahu’s coalition bloc at 50 seats, a drop of 14 since 2022. His Likud party is projected to remain the largest, by one or two seats, but to lose 25% of its seats compared with the previous election.

The results suggest broad opposition to Netanyahu’s coalition and leave the prime minister short of the support needed to form a new government. The vote was widely viewed as a referendum on his leadership following the Hamas attacks of 7 October 2023.

Eisenkot also falls short

Gadi Eisenkot’s bloc is projected to win 52 or 53 seats, still below the 61 required for a Knesset majority. The former Israel Defense Forces chief would need support from other parties to form a government.

Israeli Arab parties are projected to win 17 or 18 seats, an unprecedented total. Whether Eisenkot could rely on their support without alienating some political allies remains unclear.

Coalition talks lie ahead

With neither bloc projected to command a majority, the election has no outright winner and no straightforward path to power for either Netanyahu or Eisenkot. The result is expected to lead to weeks of negotiations over who can assemble a coalition.

A prime minister will be declared only after the coalition process; otherwise, another election may be called. The record participation of Israeli Arab voters was a notable feature of the vote.