Neither Bloc Nears Majority as Early Israeli Exit Polls Show No Clear Winner

Exit polls show divided parliament

Major Israeli television stations’ exit polls indicated that neither Netanyahu’s bloc nor the opposition led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot had reached the 61 seats required for a majority. The projections gave Arab parties 17 to 18 seats.

The polls put Netanyahu’s bloc at 50 seats and the opposition at 52 to 53. Arab parties could have a decisive role in choosing the next prime minister, although both blocs have so far refused to partner with them. Exit polls can be wrong; preliminary results were expected in the coming hours, with final counts expected in the coming days.

A pivotal vote for Netanyahu

The election was Israel’s first national vote since Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attack. It was widely viewed as a referendum on Netanyahu’s wartime leadership and his nearly unbroken 17 years in power.

Israelis are divided over the country’s direction, with Netanyahu and his ultranationalist and religious allies opposed by those seeking to protect its liberal and secular foundations. The wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran, as well as settler violence in the occupied West Bank, have strained relations with close allies and fueled worldwide outrage and rising antisemitism.

Turnout and voting-day dispute

More than 74% of eligible voters had cast ballots by 8 p.m., according to the Central Elections Committee. That was the highest turnout at that hour in decades and eight percentage points above the comparable figure in the 2022 election. Netanyahu said before the exit polls that the moment was “very moving and fateful.” After voting, he said Arab parties were drawing unprecedented support, though he offered no evidence for the claim; election data showed turnout rising in Arab communities and liberal strongholds. Likud sought to extend voting beyond 10 p.m., but the election commission rejected the request, and Eisenkot called on voters to ignore what he described as Netanyahu’s “scare tactics.”