UK Risks Missing Heavily Reduced 0.3% Aid Spending Target Without Extra Budget Funds
Forecasts show a funding gap
The UK may need to add money for international aid in the upcoming Budget to meet its 0.3 per cent target, the CGD said. Its central estimate puts the shortfall at £410 million.
The think tank’s most cautious forecast found a £250 million gap. A shortfall reaching £580 million, with aid spending falling to 0.28 per cent of national income, was described by the CGD as “very plausible”.
Why national income matters
Aid spending is measured as a proportion of gross national income. A higher GNI forecast means the government must provide more cash to reach the same 0.3 per cent share.
The new target is the smallest proportion of national income spent on aid since 1999. The CGD said the projected gaps would materially reduce the spending power of UK aid.
Government sets out its plans
The CGD said the government had made steep cuts and set a 2027 aid target that would be a 25-year low. It argued that meeting the target was the least the government could do.
An FCDO spokesperson said the department’s multi-year official development assistance allocations were published in March 2026. The plans for the next three financial years were based on GNI at the time of the 2025 spending review, the spokesperson said, adding that a fixed budget offers stability and reduces volatility.
Key points
- The CGD estimates a £410 million gap in meeting the UK’s 0.3 per cent aid target.
- Its forecasts range from a £250 million shortfall to a possible £580 million.
- A £580 million gap could leave aid spending at 0.28 per cent of national income.
- The FCDO says its multi-year aid plans are based on GNI at the 2025 spending review.