Seven-win right wing streak ends as Brazil victory gives Lula edge, deals Trump blow in Latin America

Brazil breaks regional pattern

Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won 51.8 percent of the vote on Sunday, defeating Flávio Bolsonaro, who received 48.2 percent. The result halted a recent rightward trend in Latin America. Voters in Brazil ended an 18-month period in which conservative candidates had won seven consecutive presidential elections across the region. Had Bolsonaro prevailed, Mexico’s Claudia Sheinbaum would have been the only progressive president leading a major regional power.

A more difficult U.S. approach

Brazil’s result limits Trump’s efforts to extend U.S. influence in the Western Hemisphere. Analysts say Lula’s victory complicates Washington’s attempts to draw Brazil into an anti-cartel military alliance and obtain favored access to valuable mineral resources.

Trump supported the regional shift toward tough law-and-order candidates through campaign endorsements, financial bailouts and millions of dollars in military aid. Bolsonaro had pledged to join the U.S.-directed security coalition, making his relationship with Trump central to his campaign. The administration’s open support for Bolsonaro ultimately strengthened Lula’s position, Roberts said.

Lula has objected to U.S. classifications of Brazil’s First Capital Command and Red Command as terrorist groups, warning they could become a pretext for foreign intervention. Brian Winter said Brazil’s independent history and military mean the U.S. administration will have to proceed carefully.

Minerals and shared interests

Brazil’s rare earth reserves are important to Washington’s efforts to reduce defense reliance on China. Lula, meanwhile, is seeking foreign investment and lower tariffs for Brazilian exporters, while emphasizing national control of resources and trade beyond the United States.

USA Rare Earth, which has U.S. government financial backing, completed a $2.8 billion acquisition of Serra Verde last month. The Brazilian operation produces four rare earth elements outside Asia. Brazil also supplies about 90 percent of the world’s niobium, according to the U.S. Geological Survey; the element is used in rocket engines, jet propulsion and military hardware.

Despite differences, Will Freeman said Lula is pragmatic enough to find a way to work with the Trump administration. Lula’s May White House visit addressed trade, critical minerals and organized crime, challenging the Bolsonaro camp’s claim that only conservatives could engage with Washington.