Brazil keeps the left: Lula’s victory and what it means for his country and beyond

A narrow result, a sharp reversal

Brazil’s 159 million voters chose Lula by a clear but narrow margin, with results declared just after midnight UK time. The 80-year-old leftist received 51.79%, while his rival won 48.21%.

The result marked a striking turnaround after a first round earlier in the month left progressives reeling. In the weeks that followed, polling tightened until Bolsonaro held only a fractional lead.

What Lula’s win means at home

For Brazil, Lula’s victory is seen by supporters as a source of stability and reassurance about the country’s democratic future, at least in the short term. Lula called the result “a defeat for denialism.” Supporters also expect environmental policies to continue. Tom said Lula had cut Amazon deforestation by more than 70%, helped Indigenous people and acted against illegal mining, adding that it was positive these efforts would carry on.

Campaign tensions and allegations

Evangelical Christianity has grown across Brazil in recent decades, and church leaders have supported socially conservative policies favoured by Bolsonaro Sr and Jr. Separately, a dozen watchdogs and research groups alleged that Meta may have favoured the senator’s campaign.

Brazil’s electoral court ordered Meta to avoid “unequal treatment” of candidates. The company rejected the allegations as “false and unfounded.” The Bolsonaro campaign also faced a series of scandals. Piauí magazine claimed that Flávio Bolsonaro attended a boat party with sex workers and vaccine lobbyists during the 2020 coronavirus outbreak.

International stakes beyond Brazil

Lula’s win may strengthen pro-democracy campaigners in other countries. Elections in Serbia, Israel and the US were described as closely linked to Brazil’s vote, and leaders across Latin America and elsewhere congratulated Lula.