Trump opposition leaves Democrats still boosted, poll finds, as less-committed voters offer Republicans a path
Opposition shapes voter choices
Many voters describe their decisions in terms of preventing outcomes they fear, rather than pursuing benefits they expect. The president is a major focus, and many voters say they are voting either for or against him.
Democratic supporters are more likely to cite opposition to Trump and Republican policies than support for their own party’s agenda. Four in 10 Democratic voters say their party lacks a clear plan, while identifying opposition to Trump as their main motivation.
Turnout leaves outcome uncertain
More Democrats than Republicans say they are certain to vote or have already voted early, contributing to the Democrats’ current advantage. The model’s possible outcomes extend into the 230s, but Republicans retain a narrow path to holding the majority.
Voters who say they will probably or maybe vote are more Republican. If those voters become more motivated, the balance could shift.
Economic worries remain prominent
The economy and inflation are leading concerns, and most likely voters say the president’s policies are making their finances worse. Voters who consider inflation very important, or say prices have caused hardship, mostly support Democrats.
Most voters do not expect to be financially better off regardless of which party wins. More voters also expect gas prices to rise under Republican control than under Democratic control, and most anticipate greater government corruption if Republicans keep control of Congress.
Trump motivates both parties
Trump also encourages Republican support: most Republicans say their vote is intended to back him, though this motivation is less pronounced than Democratic opposition to him. Most MAGA Republicans say seeing Trump campaign for candidates makes them more likely to vote Republican.
Voters do not see either party as having a clear plan that a majority supports. Republicans lead Democrats among voters who consider transgender issues a major voting factor, while MAGA Republicans are more likely than non-MAGA Republicans to see Democrats as a threat.
Key points
- Democrats’ advantage is partly associated with stronger stated voting plans and early voting.
- Republicans still have a narrow path to retaining control, and less-committed voters lean Republican.
- Opposition to Trump and Republican policies is a leading motivation among Democratic supporters.
- Inflation and financial concerns remain important, while many voters expect no improvement regardless of the outcome.