Heir Jair: Flavio Bolsonaro battles Lula to claim Brazil’s political throne

A close presidential contest

Brazil’s election is approaching, and the race between Flavio Bolsonaro and President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is described as too close to call. A Quaest survey of more than 2,000 people gives Flavio 45 per cent support and Lula 44 per cent.

Experts cited in the report caution that polling may understate support for the Bolsonaro family. Flavio’s victory would end four years of left-wing government under Lula, who previously led Brazil from 2003 to 2011 and was reelected in 2023.

Flavio’s political path

Flavio grew up in Rio de Janeiro, is the eldest son of Jair Bolsonaro, and studied law at Candido Mendes University. He entered politics in his early twenties, winning a state deputy seat in 2002 and retaining it in elections in 2006, 2010 and 2014.

Now 45, he is being investigated over alleged money laundering and corruption connected to financial ties with lawyer Willer Tomaz and funding for a film about his father, Dark Horse. The report also recounts a 2016 incident in which Flavio and his bodyguard reportedly exchanged gunfire with thieves in Rio.

A more moderate image

Flavio has tried to distinguish himself from his father. Chris Sabatini of Chatham House describes him as a “much more moderate” version of Jair and points to his choice of Alfredo Gaspar, a moderate, pro-business running mate.

Possible policy shifts

A Flavio presidency could bring changes to Brazil’s approach to civil rights, public spending and climate policy. The report says his election could mean fewer rights for LGBT people, tighter fiscal budgets and an aggressive anti-climate programme.

Former environment minister Marina Silva warned that Flavio could pursue his father’s project of Amazon deforestation. The report also says a win could reverse Brazil’s recent foreign-policy profile as a leader of the global south.

Father’s endorsement

Flavio has voiced admiration for US President Donald Trump and said he could persuade Trump to lower tariffs and repair ties with Brazil. He said his first 100 days would focus on arranging a meeting between Trump and Lula to address bilateral problems. Flavio said Jair told him in prison, “You have my support.” The endorsement reportedly helped displace Sao Paulo governor Tarcisio de Freitas, a Bolsonaro ally who had been considered a possible right-wing candidate.