Netanyahu’s Right Coalition Could Lose Majority in Israeli Elections, Poll Suggests

How Israel forms governments

About three million voters are expected to choose parties for the Knesset, which has 120 seats. Israeli voters select a party rather than an individual candidate.

Poll points to coalition losses

Preliminary polling by Agam Labs and Hebrew University surveyed 4,000 Israelis. Its projections suggest Netanyahu’s bloc is unlikely to retain its current governing coalition. Likud, led by Netanyahu, currently holds 32 seats. Its coalition partners include Shas with 11, Religious Zionism with seven, Otzma Yehudit with six, and New Hope with four; the government has 60 seats, while the opposition has 59 and one seat is unaffiliated.

Opposition faces its own challenge

The projected Haredi bloc, including Likud and Shas, is expected to win 52 to 54 seats. Likud is forecast to fall to 19 seats and Shas to six.

The opposition, led by Gadi Eisenkot of Yashar, is projected to be the largest grouping, with 20 seats. However, the poll suggests the liberal parties it might work with would together win fewer seats than the right-wing bloc.

Smaller parties may shape outcome

Netanyahu’s bloc could need support from The Reservists and Economic Party, a centre-right group that describes itself as a “third bloc” in Israeli politics. Dr Nimrod Nir of Agam Labs told The Independent that the election is “only the opening round.” If Amcha Israel and The Reservists fail to clear the threshold, the right-wing group is projected to hold 51 to 54 seats and the liberal group 50 to 54. Arab parties are forecast to win 15 to 18 seats, a split that could lead to another election.