Reverse swing in ODIs: How a rule change has changed the game and what impact could it have?

One ball, more late movement

England face Pakistan on Tuesday in a tri-series that also includes Sri Lanka. The format’s recent shift has drawn attention after England coach Brendon McCullum urged his players to consider how it might affect their plans following defeat by Sri Lanka at Headingley.

The change means the chosen ball is used for the final 16 overs, allowing it to become older and rougher. That can encourage reverse swing: movement in the air opposite to conventional swing. In the final five overs, pace bowlers’ economy rate has decreased from 8.40 to 7.95 runs per over.

Teams adjust at the death

England have shown the biggest statistical benefit from the change, although their ODI form has also improved this year. Australia, New Zealand, West Indies, South Africa, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Afghanistan have all scored more slowly in the death overs since the rule was introduced.

Individual bowlers gain movement

West Indies fast bowler Alzarri Joseph and South Africa’s Lungi Ngidi have seen large increases in late swing. Ngidi’s swing has risen by 63.3%; his bowling average is now 13, and his economy rate has fallen from 9.34 to six.

Pakistan captain Shaheen Afridi has averaged 1.3 degrees of swing at the death since the change, compared with 1.2 before it. England’s Jofra Archer has averaged 0.97 degrees of late movement, a rise of 37%.

Impact varies by location

The effect has not appeared everywhere. Bangladesh has recorded a 33% increase, while matches in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Pakistan have featured notably more late movement—relevant to the tri-series over the next two weeks.

Only three ODIs have been played in South Africa since the change, making it difficult to forecast conditions there next autumn. If reverse swing increases further, teams may need to score more of their runs earlier in an innings.