Ukraine and Middle East conflicts show how drones and AI are rewriting rules of modern warfare
Technology changes the balance
The spread of military technologies after the Second World War prompted countries to adapt their armed forces. Soviet theorists in the 1970s argued that precision weapons were changing warfare, and the 1991 Gulf War became a U.S. example of that shift.
The article cautions that a focus on advanced weapons can make resistance to a great power seem futile. Technology can help alter the balance temporarily, but other forces may acquire it or develop ways to counter it.
Ukraine turns to drones
Many analysts expected Russia to defeat Ukraine quickly in 2022. Ukraine’s determined defence and public morale helped prevent that outcome, while technology has helped address its material and numerical disadvantages.
Ukraine has increasingly relied on drones and used them in place of artillery where possible. Ukrainian officials said earlier this year that fighting an enemy using only drones was unprecedented; the article notes that the approach has limitations but has helped preserve the country’s sovereignty.
Houthi tactics and AI
The Houthi, a paramilitary organization in Yemen, began a prolonged conflict with Saudi Arabia and its allies in 2015. Their use of drones has contributed to their ability to resist Saudi-led forces, and the article says they have at times shut down Saudi airspace.
Houthi drone, missile and rocket attacks have also disrupted oil trade on which Saudi Arabia depends. The article says the group appears to have used Anthropic’s Claude to improve weapons guidance, making projectiles more accurate.
AI reaches armed groups
The article says U.S. President Donald Trump wants the American military to accelerate its use of AI, while the United States appears to lag behind potential foes in putting it into practice.
Terrorist organizations have also been early users of AI tools, particularly generative AI for recruitment. The article says these tools let groups produce content at a high rate.
Key points
- Drones have helped Ukraine compensate for disadvantages in numbers and artillery.
- Houthi attacks have disrupted Saudi airspace and oil trade.
- The Houthi appear to have used Claude to improve weapons guidance.
- Technology can shift military power, but opponents may acquire it or develop countermeasures.