As Tigray gets interim administration, can diplomacy prevent Ethiopia-Eritrea conflict?

Tigray’s interim leadership

Abiy announced the regional government on Friday after federal forces pushed back Tigrayan fighters. The offensive began in September with the Tigray People's Liberation Front and six other armed groups, which later lost control of the region.

Mekelle Mayor Shishay Amare said the administration aims to prepare for elections by establishing peace and stability. He said its priorities include helping displaced people return, reopening markets and making humanitarian aid available.

Unresolved costs and disputes

The latest fighting has raised concerns about a return to the 2020–2022 war. Around 1 million people remain displaced from that conflict, which the African Union estimated caused roughly 600,000 deaths through combat, famine and healthcare collapse.

Border tensions and diplomacy

Ethiopia and Eritrea signed a peace agreement in 2018, but their relationship has since deteriorated. Addis Ababa accuses Asmara of backing Tigrayan forces and entering Ethiopian territory; Eritrea rejects those claims, and reports of troop movements near the border have not established the extent of any deployment.

Journalist Tsedale Lemma told DW that international efforts had not adequately monitored the November 2022 Pretoria Agreement or responded as the peace process weakened. The United States and United Kingdom have called for restraint and dialogue, while US Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that the border buildup could widen the conflict.

A broader regional risk

The confrontation is unfolding amid instability in the Horn of Africa, including Sudan’s war and disputes between Ethiopia and Egypt over the Nile dam. Ethiopia inaugurated the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam last year, drawing concern from downstream neighbors Egypt and Sudan.

Ethiopia’s landlocked position since Eritrea’s independence in 1993 has also made Red Sea access strategically important. Any wider conflict could disrupt trade and maritime security along shipping routes linking Europe and Asia through the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait.