Which races could decide control of the US Senate this November

Maine offers a key opening

Maine is the clearest pickup opportunity for Democrats: it is the only state where a Republican incumbent seeking re-election serves despite Trump having lost there in 2024. Senator Susan Collins has distanced herself from Trump and declined to campaign with Vice President JD Vance.

At a debate this month, Collins said she was not Trump’s favorite senator and that he would not come to Maine. Democrats are also asking voters to judge her support for confirming Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court, a decision followed by the overturning of a federal right to abortion.

The Democratic nomination changed after progressive oysterman Graham Platner withdrew amid sexual assault allegations, which he denies. Former Maine Senate President Troy Jackson replaced him. AdImpact predicts outside groups will spend $199 million in the race; although Republican groups are spending more, most polls show Jackson narrowly ahead.

Ohio and Alaska contests

AdImpact estimates Republican groups will spend $246 million on Ohio advertising and Democrats $177 million. Brown has $16 million available for the final stretch, compared with $8.8 million for Husted.

In Alaska, Trump traveled there last week to support Republican Senator Dan Sullivan, who faces Democrat Mary Peltola, a former US Representative. Peltola has raised more, but Sullivan has $5.1 million in the bank to her $3.1 million. Outside Republican groups have spent $33 million, against $27 million by Democratic groups.

Texas remains a difficult target

James Talarico faces Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, whom the article describes as a historically weak Republican nominee. Still, Texas leans conservative and has repeatedly disappointed Democratic hopes in recent years.

Trump endorsed Paxton, although Cornyn was widely thought to have an easier path to victory. Leaked audio revealed tension between Trump and Paxton, who privately told donors that the president’s midterm convention had hurt his campaign. Polls put the contest anywhere from a tie to a six-point lead for Talarico.

Other competitive Senate races

Rogers has said Canada is not the United States’ enemy, distancing himself from Trump and his tariffs. In Michigan, Republican groups have spent $104 million on the Senate race, nearly twice the $55 million spent by Democrats. Democrats are also defending an open seat in New Hampshire, a state Harris won by nearly three points in 2024.