ABC Post Ipsos poll: Democrats lead Republicans in House vote choice as Trump approval rating hits record low
Democrats gain among independents
Democratic candidates lead Republicans by 21 points among independent likely voters, 56% to 35%, on the generic House ballot. The poll notes that individual district contests will decide control of the House, while the generic question serves as a barometer.
Democratic voters also report greater enthusiasm. Seventy-two percent say they are absolutely certain to vote, compared with 65% of Republican voters; 44% of Democrats say they are following the midterms extremely or very closely, versus 31% of Republicans.
Costs strain household budgets
About seven in 10 Americans say gasoline is unaffordable. The poll also finds increased shares describing healthcare, home energy and utilities, and rent or mortgage payments as unaffordable compared with February.
Sixty percent call groceries unaffordable, up from 45% in February but below July’s 66%. Cost concerns extend to other purchases: 61% say dinner out is unaffordable, 69% say the same of a weeklong vacation, and 80% of a new car.
Trump faces record disapproval
Fifty-two percent of Americans strongly disapprove of Trump, matching the level recorded after the Jan. 6 attack and marking a second-term high. Among Republicans, 79% approve of him, down from 88% near the start of his second term; 39% strongly approve, compared with 63% in February 2025.
A majority of MAGA Republicans, 55%, strongly approve of Trump, down from 65% in February. Meanwhile, 21% of Republicans disapprove of him, including 47% of non-MAGA Republicans.
Economy and issues draw criticism
Trump’s economy rating stands at 28% approval and 70% disapproval, both records across his two terms, according to the poll. On inflation, 23% approve of his handling and 75% disapprove; his immigration rating is higher, at 38% approval and 61% disapproval.
Majorities also disapprove of Trump’s handling of Iran and the military. On Iran, 27% approve and 70% disapprove, while 65% say using U.S. military force against Iran was a mistake; on military management, 35% approve and 63% disapprove.
Key points
- Democrats lead Republicans by 21 points among independent likely voters on the generic House ballot.
- Seventy-two percent of Democratic voters say they are certain to vote, compared with 65% of Republicans.
- Fifty-two percent of Americans strongly disapprove of Trump, a second-term high.
- Trump’s economy approval is 28%, a record low across his two terms.