Latvia: Ruling party leads in exit polls amid populist gains

According to an exit poll by public broadcaster LSM, Latvian Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs' centerist party, United List, was projected to win 35.6% of the vote.

The party of Latvian Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs took a comfortable lead in parliamentary elections on Saturday, exit polls showed.

Kulbergs' centerist, pro-Ukraine party, United List, was projected to win 35.6% of the vote, according to an exit poll by public proadcaster LSM.

"It's remarkably ‌good. ​I was not expecting such result," Kulbergs said at his party's headquarters in Riga.

The exit poll put the the populist Latvia First party in second place with 11.3% — nearly double its share at the last election in 2022. It had courted the country's substantial ethnic Russian minority.

Kulbergs said on Saturday night that he would not cooperate with any pro-Russian parties and specifically ruled out forming a coaltition with Latvia First.

Some 1.5 million people were eligible to vote in the country's 11th parliamentary election since independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.

The election, which saw 100 seats in the Saeima being contested by 14 parties using a proportional system, has been dominated by rising living costs and national security concerns in the small Baltic country which borders both Russia and Belarus.

Kulbergs, has only been in office since May after the previous government collapsed over a dispute about Ukrainian drones. Despite his party leading opinion polls, his coalition is expected to emerge weakened as populist parties gain.

Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine is seen as a direct threat to national security in Latvia which, like Ukraine, is a former Soviet state with a sizeable ethnic Russian and Russian-speaking minority.

Unlike Ukraine, however, Latvia is a member of both the European Union and NATO.

Riga is one of Kyiv's closest partners and supporters, having committed itself by law to spending at least 5% of GDP on defense – leaving less room for spending elsewhere.