Is the data used to predict wildfires in B.C. too old? | CBC News
B.C. Wildfire Service superintendent Neal McLoughlin says prediction software struggled to match the Bald Range fire’s rapid growth near Summerland on Aug. 7. More than 12,000 people evacuated, and one person died.
The Southern Interior has faced severe drought and damaging fires. Although the province’s total area burned was below average, the season ranked among the worst for property destruction.
Fire models help officials estimate how quickly a blaze may spread and plan staffing, tactics and safety measures. But forecasters say the software can be less reliable during exceptionally hot, dry conditions.
McLoughlin says responders—not computer models—make operational decisions. He is encouraging his team to draw on experience from past extreme fires when predictions seem questionable.
The models are built on Canada’s Forest Fire Danger Rating System, which relies partly on historical data collected over many decades. Experts say more information is needed to improve their ability to represent fire behaviour; the Pear Lake fire near Clinton is one example of a blaze they want models to capture better.
Key points
- Bald Range’s rapid spread forced more than 12,000 people to evacuate; one person died.
- Forecasters say models can underperform in hot, dry conditions, especially in B.C.’s Southern Interior.
- Experts say more fire-behaviour data is needed to improve predictions.