El Niño Forecast: Peak Timing, Weather and Food Prices

What is El Niño?

El Niño is a recurring climate pattern in which surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific become warmer than usual. That warming can influence winds, air pressure and rainfall far beyond the Pacific region ¹.

It is one phase of a cycle that also includes La Niña, its opposite, and periods when neither pattern is in place. El Niño events typically occur every two to seven years and last around nine to 12 months, according to the WMO information reported by SBS ¹.

When is El Niño expected to peak?

The WMO forecast cited by SBS says El Niño will keep strengthening before its forecast peak in December 2026 ¹. A peak is the expected point of greatest strength in this event; it does not mean that all effects stop immediately afterward.

The sources do not give a single, settled end date. One secondary account describes the event as lasting into early 2027, but the supplied WMO update is the stronger basis for the December peak forecast ¹⁴.

How could El Niño change weather?

The WMO says El Niño is likely to bring above-average temperatures to much of the world and alter rainfall patterns. Those shifts can raise the risk of drought in some places and flooding in others ¹.

That does not mean every region will be hotter or drier, or that a particular flood or drought can be attributed to El Niño alone. The supplied information describes broad risks rather than detailed local forecasts ¹. It also says the warming effects may add to those of human-caused climate change ¹.

Could El Niño raise chocolate and coffee prices?

It could put pressure on some agricultural supplies. El Niño can bring hotter conditions and less rainfall in Australia, and can affect tropical crops grown in warm, humid regions. Cocoa, coffee and vanilla are among the crops mentioned in the supplied reporting ².

A senior economist quoted in that report said supply reductions had begun to put pressure on prices, while describing the effect as still being at an early stage ². That is not a guarantee that shop prices will rise by a particular amount. The sources provide no reliable figure for how much prices may change, or how quickly any crop impact would reach shoppers.

What does the forecast mean for people?

For most people, the forecast is a signal to pay attention to local weather and official updates, not a prediction of exactly what will happen where they live. The WMO's outlook points to wider temperature and rainfall risks, while local conditions can differ ¹.

For food shoppers, the reporting raises a possible supply and price concern for particular crops, not a certain price rise for every chocolate or coffee product ². The supplied sources do not provide local price forecasts or enough detail to assess effects on individual households.